When Oil Meets Sovereign Risk: YPF on the NYSE During Argentina’s Turbulent Years

Resumo

This study investigates the stock performance of YPF S.A., Argentina’s largest oil and gas company listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), during the turbulent years between 2020 and 2024. Using a transparent methodology based on verified annual adjusted closing prices, the analysis reveals four distinct phases: a sharp decline in 2021, stagnation in 2022, and strong rebounds in 2023 and 2024, including a remarkable surge of over 180 percent between 2022 and 2023. Interestingly, these movements show a clear decoupling from Brent crude oil prices, suggesting that YPF’s valuation was shaped more by domestic factors such as sovereign risk, inflation, political uncertainty, and legal developments. One such development was the 2023 U.S. court ruling against Argentina in the expropriation case of YPF. The study highlights how institutional fragility and macroeconomic instability in emerging markets can significantly influence investor sentiment, particularly for partially state-owned firms. By connecting stock price changes with broader economic and political conditions, the paper provides insight into the multifaceted risks affecting emerging-market equities. Although the dataset is intentionally limited to annual observations, the descriptive results are consistent with existing literature on sovereign credit risk and oil price volatility. The findings emphasize the need to move beyond commodity-driven narratives and account for institutional and country-specific dynamics. This research lays a foundational reference for future studies seeking to conduct more granular, data-rich analyses of market behavior in emerging economies such as Argentina.